February 2026
GTA Market Watch

The Greater Toronto Area resale housing market tightened in February 2026 compared to a year ago. Sales were down year-over-year, but new listings fell by an even larger margin — a dynamic that matters for what comes next. Here's what the TRREB data shows and what it means if you're buying, selling, or renewing in the GTA or Simcoe County this spring.

Sales Down, But Listings Fell Faster

On the surface, 3,868 sales is a quiet February. But the more important story is on the supply side. New listings dropped 17.7% compared to February 2025 — a steeper decline than sales. When supply falls faster than demand, competition between buyers begins to build even in a slow market.

TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld noted: "Many would-be homebuyers are waiting for selling prices to level off before moving into the market. If new listings continue to trend lower through the spring, competition between homebuyers will increase, supporting home prices and a recovery in sales."

On a seasonally adjusted basis, both sales and new listings were down month-over-month from January 2026 — with listings falling at a greater rate. That's the second consecutive month of tightening supply conditions.

Prices: Still Soft, But the Floor May Be Near

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was down 7.9% year-over-year in February 2026. The average selling price of $1,008,968 was down 7.1% from February 2025 — and also declined slightly from January on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The 100,000 Buyer Backlog

TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer put a number on the pent-up demand in the market: "There is substantial pent-up demand in the GTA ownership market, with more than 100,000 buyers holding off on making a home purchase. Buyers are waiting for selling prices to level off and for positive news on the trade front. Once we see both, there could be substantial momentum driving home sales in the second half of this year and into 2027."

This matters because it tells us the demand is there — it's just parked. These aren't buyers who have left the market permanently. They're waiting for a signal. When that signal comes, the transition from slow to competitive can happen quickly.

The Missing Middle Problem

TRREB CEO John DiMichele flagged a longer-term structural issue that affects both Barrie and the GTA: "The long-term sustainability of the GTA housing market depends upon the industry's ability to bridge the gap between condominium apartments and traditional single-family homes. TRREB is urging the Federal and Provincial Governments to take immediate targeted action to pave the way for increased 'missing middle' home construction."

The missing middle — townhomes, semi-detached, stacked townhomes, low-rise multiplexes — is the housing type most in demand and least in supply. Until policy and zoning catch up, affordability pressure will remain structural rather than cyclical.

What This Means for Barrie & Simcoe County

Barrie and Simcoe County tend to follow GTA trends with a 3–6 month lag. The tightening supply conditions showing up in GTA February data suggest that buyers in Barrie who are waiting for the absolute bottom may be waiting longer than they think — particularly in the move-up and detached home categories.

• If you're buying: Conditions are still buyer-friendly, but the window may be closing. Listings that sit today won't necessarily sit in May or June if the supply trend continues.
• If you're selling: Correct pricing and presentation remain critical. The market is not forgiving of overpriced listings, even with declining supply.
• If you're renewing: This market environment is a reminder to plan your renewal early. Don't let rate uncertainty drive you into a hasty decision. Compare options across lenders 4–6 months before your maturity date.